So, how’d my predictions do?

You know, the ones I made back at the beginning of 2009? I should have commented on them…well…at the beginning of 2010, but I was basically lazy (for four months)…So let’s get to them now:

“1) The stock market will eventually hit as low as 7,000-7,500 before it starts crawling back up. And I mean crawling – if it’s above 8,000 again by the end of the year I’ll be surprised.”

Well, color me surprised, then. It both got lower than I thought (lowest was 6,626) and got way higher than I thought (10,520!). I had thought investors would have been more gun-shy than that. I’d be tempted to call the lowest a “near miss,” but the highest is way out there.

“2) Gas is not going to hit a dollar a gallon. It’s pretty much as low as it’s going to get now. It might – briefly – hit a U.S. average of $1.40 a gallon, but only if the economy is doing a whole lot worse than it is now. Admittedly, this could happen…”

Mind you it didn’t…because gas definitely didn’t hit below (or even at) a dollar.

3) The recession will not be over by the end of the year. The Feds will declare it over sometime in early 2010, but of course, for real people, it’ll be at least another three years before it’s over.

I’m calling this one a hit. Mind you, people are still just toying with calling it over, but that’s because no one wants to be the next “Mission Accomplished” faux pas out there on YouTube. As for the second part…yeah, it’ll be about three years before regular people start to see improvements…

4) Psychic, astrological and other woo-woo predictions for the year will average less than random chance…and only do that well because they put in some obvious guesses like I did.

Well my accuracy rate was 66%…more like 80% if you accept the “near miss” for the lowest market price – anyone want to bet they can find a “psychic” who did that well?


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